So it's been on my mind for a few days now, what is happening to the main opposition party the people's democratic party otherwise known as the PDP. This blog post isn't about the current issues they face, because I consider their current infighting as inconsequential especially when you put it into the perspective of the long-term plans and life cycles of strategies in politics. So I wouldn't, comment on the shifting of their headquarters to the middle east or I wouldn't comment on the surprising romance between Wike with Fayemi the current head of the governor's forum, but I must say it will be a sensation to see Wike and Amaechi in the same party once again, I wonder what that will be like, but moving on to the matter at hand. Strategies for the next 16 years are already in play. Babachir Lawal gave his opinion of Tinubu being the president come 2023. Even though he may not be in government again, we sure know Buhari is a loyal friend and may still listen to his opinions, or his comment may just be a misdirection to take the heat of the presidency as to who they will support from the southwest as all eyes are on the vice-president Osibanjo. Plenty of theories will be flying around now but soon and very soon the real faces will emerge.
Going back to the opposition party and the role, they play in a democratic government; it's so important that the PDP gets its acts together to be able to strategize effectively for the next four election cycles. Lets us assume power is shifted to the south, it doesn't look like it will go to the southeast because, in terms of the clear options from the region, there are no standout candidates with the right influence that can cut across the six geopolitical zones of the country on both sides of the aisle. On the issue of zoning, I believe even though the political class doesn't really mind who comes into power in terms of the south or north, the high illiteracy levels of the populace will make it an easy talking point for the politicians to use to divide the electorate. Lets us assume power is shifted to the south, it doesn't look like it will go to the southeast because, in terms of the clear options from the region, there are no standout candidates with the right influence that can cut across the six geopolitical zones of the country on both sides of the aisle. In the PDP there are still no dominant candidates unless Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala comes back into active politics and joins the PDP, and that will also need the current contenders to sheath their swords and support her as the sole candidate, who I think is least likely. As for the APC the southwest has entrenched is self so much that, even if Tinubu and Osibanjo are miraculously dropped Babatunde Raji Fashola is still available on the bench.
''The Opposition's main role is to question the government of the day and hold them accountable to the public. In the legislature, Opposition Party has a major role and must act to discourage the party in power from acting against the interests of the country and the common man.''
Assuming the APC doesn't self-destruct before 2023 and is still together and as one party. The PDP should step its game up and be that realistic voice of reason and give the country a practical option. Right now they sound so inept when they try reframing the downsides of the Buhari led the government's policies to fit the narrative that the center needs a replacement. In my opinion, they will need to unlearn their old strategies and focus on new ideas, ideas that appeal to the non-regular voters, ideas that will make millennials come out in their numbers to vote. 2019 elections had a very low voter turnout across the country, and it was lowest in Lagos as only as 19% of the registered cardholders came out to vote.
The candidate and the right pairing
A younger educated politician, sound with numbers, peter obi seems to be the ideal candidate but since he was an outsider to the Igbo PDP enough traction wasn't built in the southeast to even accept him early enough as the VP candidate.
A Shadow cabinet
With 2023 in view the PDP should have a core economic team that picks realistic holes in the current policies from the economic ones to the security challenges offer solutions and own the solutions well publicize them and when the government copies them it will be obvious that they were the ideas of the opposition. With this, they will build new affection as the party with the answer.
Grassroots politics
This can never be overstated, this is a major reason Wike worn rivers state in 2015 with GDI. It was a perfectly executed strategy, not to say it didn't have its issues especially with the violence and the rest, but that aside it connected to the people at their level. I am an unapologetic Amaechi supporter, maybe because I grew up in Rivers state or maybe because I attended UNIPORT the same as Rotimi. It's important to recognize a good strategy, and I must say wike executed in both 2015 and 2019. Same for Lagos state and the APC's political structure has layers that are way more advanced than that of Rivers state, but you can see good grassroots strategy on two different sides of the bandwidth.
University Rallies
Educated Millennials and Gen-Z should also be another target of the PDP come 2023, as this group is harder to please and less interested in coming out to the polls to vote. A well-tailored plan to target this group will be an add on to get this group of Nigerians.
Hunger politics
As ridiculous as this sounds its still an integral part of African politics and should not be taken for granted. I do not believe that most politicians keep their electorate in this perpetual state of poverty as to get them to vote for them come election time by giving them Indomie noodles and pure water sachets to buy their votes, but it happens at some levels. I do believe that Nigerians and the African populace at large are in deep systemic poverty that determines the choice of they vote for regardless of the politician's skill or experience. The PDP already has the knowledge of this strategy and use it efficiently during elections. Rice bags with the candidate's name on it and the rest. Inexperienced politicians make this misstep of not using this strategy and focus more on intellectual discourse which is good but incomplete putting in cognizance the bulk of the country and continent are illiterate and are in abject poverty. Ignore this at your own peril.
Start now
2023 may seem far off but for Tinubu Asiwaju's camp to the Atiku's camp, they will be building alliances and using court cases as smoke screens, while they would have gotten their chief strategist to give solutions for each obstacle they might likely face. On the various war rooms of each politician, there will be a short list of possible politicians or individuals who may or may not have shown interest yet but possesses the capacity to be a threat if they do, with corresponding plans to set in motion in the eventuality that the said politician becomes a candidate. 2023 may be an already finished battle for the most prepared team, not hard feeling or crying over technically spilled milk when you can start preparing for 2031.
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